50 marginal constituencies
1 general election
Dover and Deal

For the final results in each of 50for15's constituencies, see this post.

What? A traditional Conservative-Labour marginal with increasing support for UKIP.

Where? As close to France as a Parliamentary constituency can get!

Why? If replicated nationally, the swing Labour require to win the seat from the Conservatives would leave Labour as the largest party after the election. Rising UKIP support will certainly disrupt the traditional pattern of two party competition here.

Previous election results

Data via the Guardian.

Conservative majority in 2010: 5, 274

The MP in the last Parliament – Charlie Elphicke

Charlie Elphicke, MP for Dover and Deal

Charlie Elphicke, MP for Dover and Deal

Formerly a tax lawyer, Charlie Elphicke (Con) lives on the seafront in Dover. He also used to work in pharmaceutical research and ran his own small business. Elphicke is a research fellow at the Centre for Policy Studies. More details on Elphicke’s website.

@charlieelphicke

The challengers

Clair Hawkins, Labour's candidate in Dover and Deal

Clair Hawkins, Labour’s candidate in Dover and Deal

Born in Dover and brought up in Deal, Clair Hawkins (Lab) used to work as a teacher. She wants to rebuild local pride in the area. More details on Hawkins’ website.

@clairhawkins

Sarah Smith, the Lib Dem candidate for Dover and Deal

Sarah Smith, the Lib Dem candidate for Dover and Deal

Having joined the Liberal Democrats in 2007, Sarah Smith stood in the Kent County Council elections in 2012 and was selected as the candidate for Dover and Deal in 2013. She has worked as the director of retail and construction businesses, and has held senior policy roles at the Church of England and at the Financial Services Authority. More details on Smith’s website.

@sarahdoverdeal

David Little, UKIP's candidate in Dover and Deal

David Little, UKIP’s candidate in Dover and Deal

David Little (UKIP) was born and bred in Dover. His main political interests are withdrawal from the EU, jobs and education. In November he made headlines in the Sunday People for posting a ‘Bongo Bongo’ land map on his Facebook feed. More details in the Dover Express.

@ukipdealdover

Jolyon Trimingham is the Green Party candidate for Dover and Deal.

Jolyon Trimingham is the Green Party candidate for Dover and Deal.

Jolyon Trimingham is the Green Party candidate for Dover and Deal. He has worked as a freelance technical author in many European countries. In his spare time he has taken part in direct action campaigns against nuclear power and for rail transport.

@trimingham1

Our articles
It's a slim Conservative majority overall, but who won and who lost in 50for15's seats?

It’s a slim Conservative majority overall, but who won and who lost in 50for15’s seats?

Instead of a hung Parliament, which most people had predicted, the Conservatives ended up winning a slim majority. With 331 seats under their belt, they have a majority of five, if you take the view that 326 seats constitutes a majority (650 divided by 2, plus 1), or a majority of ten when you take into...
Some polling day thoughts from 50for15

Some polling day thoughts from 50for15

Today’s the big day – you’ve still got a few hours left to vote (till 10pm), so make sure you do. Here’s a way of finding contact details for your local authority, who will know where your polling station is, in case you don’t. BBC Free Speech did a quick interview with us to get our...
Our 50 constituencies – all on one map

Our 50 constituencies – all on one map

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“If I were to speak to 100 people, maybe 2 or 3 would raise immigration” – our interview with David Little, UKIP candidate for Dover and Deal

“If I were to speak to 100 people, maybe 2 or 3 would raise immigration” – our interview with David Little, UKIP candidate for Dover and Deal

Outsiders might assume that supporters of UKIP who live in the UK’s gateway to Europe would be motivated to vote by immigration. UKIP is also seen as a more natural destination for ex-Tory Eurosceptics than left-leaning Labourites. But David Little, UKIP candidate for Dover and Deal, has other ideas about what’s driving UKIP support in...
Dover and Deal: the gateway seat to a Labour majority?

Dover and Deal: the gateway seat to a Labour majority?

I joined Clair Hawkins, Labour candidate for Dover and Deal, on the campaign trail in Tower Hamlets, an area of Dover town with around 2700 households. By strange coincidence, Hawkins’ first role as an elected politician was as a local councillor in Tower Hamlets in London. But she’s a local, Dover born and brought up...
The Final 50

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A Yellowbird over the White Cliffs of Dover? An interview with the Lib Dem PPC, Sarah Smith

A Yellowbird over the White Cliffs of Dover? An interview with the Lib Dem PPC, Sarah Smith

The first few minutes of my telephone interview with Sarah Smith, the Liberal Democrat candidate for Dover and Deal, was going well. We had discussed what Sarah thinks makes for a good society (“a strong sound economy, individual freedom, and responsibilities to others”), her political background (she’s always been interested), and her love for Dover...
Why 50? Why 15?

Why 50? Why 15?

In 2015, only a minority of the 650 constituencies in the UK will elect an MP of a party different from the one they chose in 2010. Most seats are, instead, ‘safe,’ thanks to the first-past-the-post electoral system. Based on first-hand experience and plenty of travelling, this blog will examine 50 seats that are likely...