50 marginal constituencies
1 general election
Birmingham Edgbaston

For the final results in each of 50for15's constituencies, see this post.

Why? Labour-Conservative marginal, which Labour won in 2010 with a majority of 1,274 votes.

Where? South-west of the centre of Birmingham. The main Birmingham University campus lies within the constituency.

What? It seemed very unlikely the Labour MP Gisela Stuart would retain her seat at the last general election – so much so that she won the Spectator’s ‘Survivor of the Year’ award in 2010. Her main rival this time round is local GP, Dr Luke Evans.

Previous election results

Data via the Guardian.

Labour majority in 2010: 1, 274

The MP in the last Parliament – Gisela Stuart

Gisela Stuart, MP for Birmingham Edgbaston, poses with Alex and the 50for15 board – the latter at her own insistence

Gisela Stuart, MP for Birmingham Edgbaston, poses with Alex and the 50for15 board – the latter at her own insistence

West Germany-born Gisela Stuart (Lab) has been MP for Birmingham Edgbaston since 1997. She served as a health minister under Tony Blair, and now serves on the Defence Select Committee and edits the parliamentary political magazine The House. 50fo15 interviewed Stuart back in October. More details on Stuart’s website.

@GiselaStuart

The challengers

Adam with Dr Luke Evans, the Conservative candidate for Birmingham Edgbaston

Adam with Dr Luke Evans, the Conservative candidate for Birmingham Edgbaston

Local GP Dr Luke Evans (Con) trained at the Medical School in Edgbaston and has lived in the constituency for the last twelve years. We spoke to Evans back in October. More details on Evans’ website.

@drlukeevans

Lee Dargue, Lib Dem PPC for Birmingham Edgbaston

Lee Dargue, Lib Dem PPC for Birmingham Edgbaston

Lee Dargue (Lib Dem), who works in Occupational Health and Environmental Management, is a member of the LibDem Education Association and LGBT+LibDems. He also founded the LibDem Mental Health Association, which aims to support our ministers in government improve services. Full biography on Dargue’s website.

@leedargue

Graham Short

Graham Short is the UKIP candidate for Birmingham Edgbaston.

Artist Graham Short is standing as the UKIP candidate for Birmingham Edgbaston. More details on the Central and South Birmingham UKIP website.

Phil Simpson is the Green Party candidate for Birmingham Edgbaston.

Phil Simpson is the Green Party candidate for Birmingham Edgbaston.

Phil Simpson is the Green Party candidate for Birmingham Edgbaston. More information on Simpson’s blog

@Cefn55

Our articles
It's a slim Conservative majority overall, but who won and who lost in 50for15's seats?

It’s a slim Conservative majority overall, but who won and who lost in 50for15’s seats?

Instead of a hung Parliament, which most people had predicted, the Conservatives ended up winning a slim majority. With 331 seats under their belt, they have a majority of five, if you take the view that 326 seats constitutes a majority (650 divided by 2, plus 1), or a majority of ten when you take into...
Some polling day thoughts from 50for15

Some polling day thoughts from 50for15

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Birmingham fights back against falling numbers of registered voters

Birmingham fights back against falling numbers of registered voters

The deadline for getting yourself onto the electoral register is 20th April – you can register to vote here –, but it already seems as though changes to the way the registration takes place have meant that far fewer people will end up voting in 2015 than in 2010. Figures released earlier this week suggest it might be...
The #GE2015 roadtrip: 23 constituencies in 14 days

The #GE2015 roadtrip: 23 constituencies in 14 days

From April 7th-21st, the 50for15 team will be going on one almighty roadtrip. From Argyll and Bute down to Camborne and Redruth, we will be visiting 23 marginal constituencies to find out what the voters in these pivotal seats think about this unpredictable election. Read the full itinerary here. Having already visited 33 of the 50...
Our 50 constituencies – all on one map

Our 50 constituencies – all on one map

Arfon Plaid Cymru majority: 1,455 votes Labour target Click to read more Argyll and Bute Lib Dem majority: 3,431 votes Conservative target Labour target SNP target Click to read more Ashfield Labour majority: 192 votes Lib Dem target Click to read more Birmingham Edgbaston Labour majority: 1, 274 votes Conservative target Click to read more...
50for15 official launch

50for15 official launch

With exactly 100 days to go before the election on May 7th 2015, 50for15 held its official launch in Portcullis House. Below is a transcript of the opening speech Adam, Alex and Claire gave to guests explaining more about the purpose of the blog, what we’ve learnt so far, and what the plans are for...
Under 100 days to go: unpacking the unpredictability of 2015

Under 100 days to go: unpacking the unpredictability of 2015

With under 100 days to go until the 2015 general election, here are three lessons from our marginals. Small parties will disrupt outcomes Nationally, UKIP are polling at 15% and the Greens around 10%. Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck with approximately 30% each. Of course, patterns vary widely between constituencies, and will...
GP to MP? A consultation with Dr Luke Evans, the Conservative candidate for Birmingham Edgbaston

GP to MP? A consultation with Dr Luke Evans, the Conservative candidate for Birmingham Edgbaston

“Everyone knows what it looks like to have a good local GP, and that should be the same for a good local MP: standing up for people and looking after them,” says local doctor Luke Evans. To make the transition from GP to MP, the Conservative candidate for Birmingham Edgbaston needs to gain a 1.1%...
The Final 50

The Final 50

Choosing 50 constituencies from the 650 available is no easy task, even if the number of safe seats considerably whittles down the number of contestable constituencies. Here is a list of the final 50 we have chosen to study and visit over the upcoming 5 months, complete with party colour coding. Please do get in...
What's your #3wordNHS?

What’s your #3wordNHS?

NHS – it’s a three-letter acronym, but how would you describe the organisation in three words? (No points for “National Health Service”). We took this question to voters shopping in the marginal constituency of Birmingham Edgbaston and to Twitter with the accompanying hashtag, #3wordNHS. Most UK voters have been affected by the work of the...
"The Black Country is dominated, like a big spider, by Birmingham" – Gisela Stuart MP on old school textbooks and her constituency

“The Black Country is dominated, like a big spider, by Birmingham” – Gisela Stuart MP on old school textbooks and her constituency

Gisela Stuart, the West German-born turned-Brummie Labour MP, doesn’t mince her words. “It is completely the wrong question,” she says to the first thing I ask. Earlier, it is in a tone of awe, if not fear, that Helen, the treasurer of the church where Stuart is holding her surgery, reassures me that Stuart’s first...
Why 50? Why 15?

Why 50? Why 15?

In 2015, only a minority of the 650 constituencies in the UK will elect an MP of a party different from the one they chose in 2010. Most seats are, instead, ‘safe,’ thanks to the first-past-the-post electoral system. Based on first-hand experience and plenty of travelling, this blog will examine 50 seats that are likely...